Economic Naiveté

There is no true consensus among academic economists regarding how the economy should be managed. Indeed, there are lists of impressively credentialed economists supporting the economic agenda of both presidential candidates (see here and here).

Economic modeling is tricky business, and requires a great deal of mathematics to understand. Even then, the models leave out so much detail, and rely on such strong assumptions, that it is often unclear how reliable the conclusions are. What I’m trying to say is no one understands the economy in it’s entirety, and those who come closest spend many, many years of rigorous study in the attempt.

Over the last several months McCain has been hammered for his admission that he is not an expert on the economy. To hear his critics tell it, he has revealed a gap in his knowledge that any intelligent person has long since rectified. Rather, he has acknowledged something that is true of almost everyone. This, in my view, is an example of the heartening frankness that has frequently characterized McCain’s campaign. We’ll have to wait and see if this sort of honesty outlasts the latest campaign shakeup. I suspect that the closer we get to election day, the less candor we can expect to see.